Global PC shipments plunged in Q1 2023 compared to the same period a year ago, according to separate reports from IDC and Canalys. IDC saw PC shipments saw a 29% drop to 56.9 million units in Q1 2023, while Canalys observed an even bigger drop of 33% drop to 54 million units.

Among the top five PC makers on the market, Apple took the biggest hit. IDC observed a 40.5% YoY drop, with Dell following with a 31% drop. Canalys noted an even higher 45.5% drop for Apple. Even though Mac sales did benefit from the transition to Apple Silicon that started in the fall 2020, most people who needed to buy a new machine during the pandemic have already bought one.

“Most of the issues that plagued the industry in the second half of last year have extended into the start of 2023,” said Ishan Dutt, Senior Analyst at Canalys, adding that “demand across all customer segments remains dampened, with more pressure arising from further interest rate increases in the US, Europe and other markets, where reducing inflation is a top priority.

This post-pandemic slump should last throughout the end of the year as more organizations start upgrading their PC fleet to Windows 11, according to IDC. “By 2024, an aging installed base will start coming up for refresh,” said Linn Huang, research vice president, Devices and Displays at IDC. “If the economy is trending upwards by then, we expect significant market upside as consumers look to refresh, schools seek to replace worn down Chromebooks, and businesses move to Windows 11.”

Canalys is also quite optimistic about PC shipments in 2024. “A much larger installed base post-COVID-19, the transition to Windows 11, and both refresh and new demand from digital education will all be key drivers as the global economy enters a period of recovery in 2024 and beyond,” Dutt said.